The economy and the continued downward slide of advertising-based media companies brought radical changes to the way the media industry operated in 2009. Like it or not, 2010 will continue the trend.

Here are nine bold predictions about the industry for the year ahead:

Aol changes the game – The newly spun-off Aol should be an interesting case study for publishers everywhere for three reasons:

1. Its CEO is an ex-Google employee, marking the first time that a content company is being helmed by someone with intimate knowledge of the world’s largest search engine.
2. While most large publishers are battling debt and bankruptcy, Aol has a sturdy backbone of dial-up Internet customers to subsidize some risk in the years to come.
3. The company has no illusions about the role of content on the web: it announced that search traffic will dictate editorial.

If the company becomes viable, look to see the copycats spring up across the Web. Aol’s hiring of high-profile journalists cannot continue indefinitely, especially given the low rate it plans to pay its writers and many current freelance writers and recent grads will flock to one of the only hiring media companies in the country.

Blogging gets serious – Last month, Gawker has announced that it will begin hiring bloggers as full-time employees. Those declaring 2009 to be the "year of original content" had the right idea but were ahead.

As Aol and Demand Media-type companies rise to prominence and as many established print publications move online we will see a separation in between content factories and quality editorial. And, like it or not, Gawker and similar blogs are likely to be on the “quality” side.

The WSJ never blocks Google – For all of the posturing of Rupert Murdoch, the company will not block Google but instead use its might to help the search giant reconsider its relationship with publishers. Google has already made adjustments to how it handles paywalls and the company is sure to be making similar moves to appease the publishers that have (rightly or wrongly) blamed the company for their woes. 

The New York Times never puts up a paywall – Many people disagree about the viability of putting up a paywall, but most agree that no publisher wants to be the first to make the leap. Given the company's slow reaction to other changes in the industry, look for the Times to waffle a bit more and let smaller, more desperate companies operate as a case study.

Apple loses its hold on mobile – Once Apple got a hold of the music industry, it never looked back. In the music industry, however, Apple didn’t have Google to contend with. Platforms like Android and the Blackberry will finally make significant strides to catch up to Apple and take chunks from the iPhone’s smartphone market share as the term “smartphone” begins applying to every mobile device.

Local. Local. Local. - Local vendors and publishers will become the new hot commodity in 2010 as GPS-enabled cell phones increase in popularity and more of small-town America receives broadband Internet.

More consortiums – As is the case with Hulu, Vevo and the magazine industry’s new “digital marketplace” company, newspapers, B2B and local publishers will begin to form loose partnerships to create technology standardization that results in a positive impact on the bottom line. 

We lose a major metropolitan daily – One of the top ten media markets will lose its daily newspaper. It will then shortly be resurrected as shadow of its former self, or move online.

A major columnist or writer leaves a big brand and starts a VC-backed editorial venture - The grumbling of star columnists and reporters is becoming louder as the institutions that once served as career launching pads are beginning to crumble. Look for writers like Thomas Friedman of the New York Times or Bill Simmons of ESPN leave their companies to try to go it alone.